Intelligence Report on U.S. Strikes in Venezuela: Operation Southern Spear

Executive Summary

The three-month period spanning September to November 2025 witnessed the most direct and high-profile deployment of U.S. military force in the Western Hemisphere since the 1989 invasion of Panama. Codenamed “Operation Southern Spear,” the campaign involved a sustained series of kinetic strikes against vessels — predominantly small civilian and fishing boats — allegedly involved in narcotics trafficking and linked to the Venezuelan government. This report analyzes the background and context, the operational timeline, the significant military buildup, the domestic and international reactions, and the profound legal and geopolitical implications of this unprecedented escalation.

Background and Context

U.S.–Venezuela relations had been tense for years before 2025. Political friction, mutual sanctions, and accusations of state involvement in illicit trafficking created a highly strained bilateral environment. In mid-2025, the U.S. government intensified its rhetoric and policy measures, increasingly characterizing certain organized-crime groups operating from Venezuela — most notably the “Tren de Aragua” — as transnational narcoterrorists. This shift provided the legal and political justification, according to the U.S. administration, for employing robust military measures in the Caribbean theater. At the same time, domestic U.S. political pressure related to opioid- and stimulant-related deaths, along with rising migration numbers, fueled demand for visible action.

Timeline and Major Events (Sept–Nov 2025)

2 September 2025:

The U.S. military conducted an airstrike on a fast-moving vessel it claimed was trafficking cocaine from Venezuela, killing 11 people whom President Trump publicly identified as Tren de Aragua members. The strike represented an early escalation in U.S. use of lethal force in the Caribbean.

Early–mid September:

Additional U.S. air and drone strikes were reported against small vessels in the southern Caribbean. The U.S. also surged naval assets into the region, including destroyers, intelligence-gathering aircraft, MQ-9–type drones, and F-35s temporarily deployed to Puerto Rico. The official U.S. narrative emphasized counternarcotics interdiction.

Late September–October:

The administration formally reclassified aspects of its campaign, declaring a “non-international armed conflict” with certain transnational criminal groups. This move created legal and rhetorical space for continued strikes and potential lethal operations against designated groups. Reports also indicated authorization for expanded CIA and special-operations activity inside Venezuela.

November 2025:

The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group approached Latin American waters, and U.S. forces reopened a shuttered naval facility in Puerto Rico to sustain operations — both clear signals of extended commitment and escalation. Venezuela declared nationwide mobilization and conducted large-scale naval and air exercises in response. By mid-November, publicly available reporting indicated that more than twenty vessel strikes had occurred within a two-month span, raising growing political, humanitarian, and diplomatic concern as the operation expanded in intensity, visibility, and regional impact.

Regional and Global Reaction

Venezuela:

President Maduro denounced the strikes as acts of “state terrorism” and illegal aggression aimed at regime change and control of oil resources, rather than drug interdiction. Venezuela responded by mobilizing over four million members of its Bolivarian Militia and deploying troops for massive military exercises, signaling preparedness for a potential U.S. land incursion.

Latin America:

Reaction was mixed but largely critical. Countries such as Colombia (under President Gustavo Petro) publicly condemned the actions, accusing the U.S. of killing its citizens and labeling the attacks unlawful. This led to a significant deterioration in U.S.–Colombia relations.

U.S. Allies:

The military actions strained relations with close partners. The United Kingdom and Canada reportedly distanced themselves from the operation, with the U.K. suspending intelligence sharing over concerns that its data was being used to facilitate unlawful lethal strikes.

Assets Involved in the Operation

Conclusion

The 2025 U.S. strikes in Venezuela marked a major turning point for regional security, revealing deepening tensions between states, disagreements over international law, and challenges in verifying events through online open-source methods. While the U.S. maintains that it achieved substantial gains against drug-linked armed groups, the legal, humanitarian, and diplomatic repercussions continue to be felt across Latin America. The operation has shifted the strategic landscape, intensified information warfare, and highlighted the growing role of OSINT in tracking fast-moving geopolitical events.

References

Cancian, M. F., & Park, C. H. (2025, November 10). Trump’s Caribbean campaign: The data behind Operation Southern Spear. Center for Strategic & International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/trumps-caribbean-campaign-data-behind-developing-conflict

Stewart, P., & Ali, I. (2025, November 23). Exclusive: U.S. to launch new phase of Venezuela operations, sources say. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-launch-new-phase-venezuela-operations

Kube, C. (2025, November 16). U.S. aircraft carrier arrives in Caribbean amid launch of “Operation Southern Spear”. AOL News. https://www.aol.com/news/us-aircraft-carrier-arrives-caribbean-171103751.html

Altman, H. (2025, November 24). Gen. Caine to visit Caribbean as Trump pressures Venezuela. RealClearDefense. https://www.realcleardefense.com/2025/11/24/gen_caine_to_visit_caribbean_as_trump_pressures_venezuela_1149224.html

Dhaka Tribune. (2025, November 17). What is the US doing off Venezuela’s coast? Dhaka Tribune. https://www.dhakatribune.com/world/latin-america/396571/what-is-the-us-doing-off-venezuela%E2%80%99s-coast

Tico Times. (2025, November 16). US launches Operation Southern Spear against Latin American drug cartels. Tico Times. https://ticotimes.net/2025/11/16/us-launches-operation-southern-spear-against-latin-american-drug-cartels

Stewart, P., & Ali, I. (2025, November 22). U.S. to launch new phase of Venezuela operations, sources say. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-launch-new-phase-venezuela-operations-sources-say-2025-11-22/